China project that by 2035 China becomes the world’s largest energy importer, overtaking Europe, as import dependence rises from 15% to 23%.
China’s energy production rises by 47% while consumption grows by 60%.
China’s share in global energy demand rises from 22% to 26% in 2035, while its growth contributes 36% to the world’s net increase.
China’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal’s dominance declining from 68% today to 51% in 2035 and natural gas more than doubling to 12%; oil’s share is unchanged around 18%.
China’s fossil fuel output continues to rise with increases in natural gas (+200%) and coal (+19%) more than offsetting declines in oil (-3%).
Demand for all fossil fuels expands with oil (+67%), gas (+270%) and coal (+21%) covering 66% of demand growth. Renewables in power (+580%), nuclear (+910%) and hydro (+50%) also grow strongly.
China’s CO2 emissions increase by 37% and by 2035 will account for 30% of world total with per capita emissions surpassing the OECD by the end of the Outlook.
With the economy expanding by 220% to 2035, China’s energy intensity declines by 50%, similar to the decline seen during 1990-2010 (-52%).
China’s energy production as a share of consumption drops from 85% today to 77% by 2035, making the country the world’s largest net importer.
China overtakes the US as the world’s largest oil consumer around 2030 and Russia as the world’s second largest gas consumer in the mid-2020s (trailing only the US).
Oil import dependence rises from 60% (6 Mb/d) in 2013 to 75% (13 Mb/d) in 2035 - higher than the US at its peak in 2005. Gas dependence rises from just under 30% (4 Bcf/d) to over 40% (24 Bcf/d).
Energy consumed in transport grows by 98%. Oil remains the dominant fuel but loses market share, dropping from 90% to 83% in 2035. Gas’ share increases from 5% to 11%.
Energy consumed in power generation rises by 81% and while coal remains the dominant fuel source, its market share drops from 77% today to 58% in 2035 as renewables (up from 3% to 13%) and nuclear (up from 2% to 11%) gain share
By sector, industry remains the largest part of final energy consumption, but sees the slowest growth (+41%), causing its share of demand to drop from 51% to 45%
