China - Energy

- China project that by 2035 China becomes the world’s largest energy importer, overtaking Europe, as import dependence rises from 15% to 23%.
- China’s energy production rises by 47% while consumption grows by 60%.
- China’s share in global energy demand rises from 22% to 26% in 2035, while its growth contributes 36% to the world’s net increase.
- China’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal’s dominance declining from 68% today to 51% in 2035 and natural gas more than doubling to 12%; oil’s share is unchanged around 18%.
- China’s fossil fuel output continues to rise with increases in natural gas (+200%) and coal (+19%) more than offsetting declines in oil (-3%).
- Demand for all fossil fuels expands with oil (+67%), gas (+270%) and coal (+21%) covering 66% of demand growth. Renewables in power (+580%), nuclear (+910%) and hydro (+50%) also grow strongly.
- China’s CO2 emissions increase by 37% and by 2035 will account for 30% of world total with per capita emissions surpassing the OECD by the end of the Outlook.
- With the economy expanding by 220% to 2035, China’s energy intensity declines by 50%, similar to the decline seen during 1990-2010 (-52%).
- China’s energy production as a share of consumption drops from 85% today to 77% by 2035, making the country the world’s largest net importer.
- China overtakes the US as the world’s largest oil consumer around 2030 and Russia as the world’s second largest gas consumer in the mid-2020s (trailing only the US).
- Oil import dependence rises from 60% (6 Mb/d) in 2013 to 75% (13 Mb/d) in 2035 - higher than the US at its peak in 2005. Gas dependence rises from just under 30% (4 Bcf/d) to over 40% (24 Bcf/d).
- Energy consumed in transport grows by 98%. Oil remains the dominant fuel but loses market share, dropping from 90% to 83% in 2035. Gas’ share increases from 5% to 11%.
- Energy consumed in power generation rises by 81% and while coal remains the dominant fuel source, its market share drops from 77% today to 58% in 2035 as renewables (up from 3% to 13%) and nuclear (up from 2% to 11%) gain share
- By sector, industry remains the largest part of final energy consumption, but sees the slowest growth (+41%), causing its share of demand to drop from 51% to 45%